An equally unexpected and “disappointing” development was Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s refusal, in June, to endorse a Srebrenica resolution. Since his coalition has a majority in parliament, notwithstanding the impotent fulminations from Sarajevo and its local Canadian outfit, “Institute for Genocide Research,” [1][1] [1] that effectively took the proposal off the table as far as parliament was concerned. Again, the lobby was dealt a setback it is not used to.
The Ganić extradition case in London, although ultimately eresolved in his favor, was also a sign of increasing ennui in the West with the Srebrenica lobby’s campaign to make everyone march to its tune. Serbia’s pro-Western client government did not really expect its pro forma Interpol arrest warrant for Ganić’s arrest to be honored anywhere and it was therefore caught by surprise when British authorities took Ganić into custody at Heathrow. The fact that the British court is giving the matter lengthy and thorough review, notwithstanding Belgrade’s confused reaction, belies Sarajevo’s original expectations that the matter would be resolved quickly with Ganić’s complete vindication and triumphant return home. The mere fact that Belgrade’s extradition request was not summarily discarded and that the Bosnian „statesman“ had to undergo the lengthy rigours of a court procedure, sends a clear signal that the free ride for the West’s favorite victims may be over.
This string of bitter reverses in the fields of sports, politics, and jurisprudence was ameliorated just in time by the long-expected ICTY judgment in the Popović et al. Case, made public on June 10. Not that there were any major surprises in the court’s findings: Serbian officers guilty, genocide, 7.000 to 8.000 victims, and all the rest. There is, however, one important novelty in the judgment. It is the shift from standard forensics [2][2] [2] to the cutting edge technique of DNA analysis as the primary tool for dealing with the identification and quantification of exhumed human remains which constitute the corpus delicti of the Srebrenica case. In the Popović verdict, the chamber offers the following conclusions:
“Based on the evidence, the Trial Chamber has found that at least 5.336 identified individuals were killed in the executions following the fall of Srebrenica. However, noting that the evidence before it is not all encompassing, the Trial Chamber is satisfied that the number of identified individuals will rise. The Trial Chamber therefore considers that the number of individuals killed in the executions following the fall of Srebrenica could well be as high as 7.826.”[3] [3]
The actual number of victims is a key aspect of the Srebrenica controversy and it goes also to the issue of genocide. It is manifestly incorrect to argue that provided the genocidal dolus specialis is demonstrated, even a handful of victims will do, so what is all the fuss about whether 8.000 or some other number were executed? In fact, it was precisely in the Krstić case that the chamber accepted the thesis that the “scale of killing,” i.e. numbers, was germane to genocidal intent. [4][4] [4] [4]
The real issue never was the courts’ attempts, provided they were in good faith, to determine the number of victims, but rather the methodologies they used in going about it. In both Krstić and Popović cases no attempt is made to disguise the fact that the “7.000 to 8.000” number of victims is sacrosanct and that evidence must be adjusted to fit that numerical target, rather than vice versa. It is thus that in Krstić the chamber claims, falsely as it turns out, that 2.208 Srebrenica bodies had been found at the time of judgment, and adds, quite absurdly, that in the opinion of unnamed experts 4.805 additional bodies supposedly relevant to the case lay in yet unexhumed mass graves. In relation to the critically important issue of numbers, it thus follows that the Krstić judgment was based not on a fact, but on a prognosis. Needless to say, ten years have passed since then but the predicted additional bodies have failed to materialise.
In testimony to the fact that nothing is new under the sun, or at least at ICTY, we now see the Popović chamber engaging in the same type of legal soothsaying in an attempt to gloss over the critical lack of executed bodies. The chamber notes that „the evidence before it is not all encompassing“ but since the magic figure of 8.000 must be reached by hook or by crook, it simply proclaims its conviction „that the number of individuals killed in the executions following the fall of Srebrenica could well be as high as 7.826.”
It would be useful to first review the grounds upon which that “conviction” is based and, indeed, the entire fabric of the chamber’s reasoning in this segment of its verdict before deciding whether to take its conclusions too seriously. For starters, it would be a good idea to ask where the data on which the chamber’s conclusions are based comes from. The answer is in par. 638 et passim of the Popović judgment. The data come from the International Committee for Missing Persons [ICMP], an NGO based in Tuzla, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. ICMP’s website projects the image of a benign humanitarian organization whose mission is to apply science, in this case DNA, to identify dead victims of the Bosnian conflict and to provide solace and closure to suirviving relatives. All fine and good. But there may be more to ICMP than meets the eye.
ICMP’s independence is debatable. It was formed in 1996 at the G-7 Summit in Lyon, France, at the initiative of US President Bill Clinton. The list of its chairmen so far reads like a US establishment Who is who. Its first chairman was former secretary of state Cyrus Vance, 1996-1997, followed by Bob Dole, 1997-2001. ICMP’s current chairman, „philantropist“ James Kimsey, used to be the chairman of America Online. But is that meticulously nurtured humanitarian profile realistic, or is it but another Srebrenica illusion? The probability of the latter option is enhanced when one considers that the chairman of ICMP is appointed by none other than the Secretary of State of the United States. As we learn from State Department press release of May 11, 2001:
„Secretary Powell has appointed Jim Kinsey as the new US chairperson of the International Committee for Missing Persons (ICMP), the leading organisation involved in the identification of remains of people killed in recernt conflicts in the Balkans. Mr. Kinsey isd the Founding CEO and Chauirman Emeritus of America Online Inc.“
Though ICMP’s public image projects the impression of a classical NGO with purely humanitarian objectives, based on the mechanism whereby its management is appointed at least a conflict of interest issue could be raised. Not only that, but while fullfilling its mission it would seem that ICMP is not accountable to any scientific or juridical body. In the opinion of US political analyst George Pumphrey:
(The author is President of the Dutch NGO Srebrenica Historical Project)
Links:
[1] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftn1
[2] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftn2
[3] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftn3
[4] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftn4
[5] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftn5
[6] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftn6
[7] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftn7
[8] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftnref1
[9] http://www.instituteforgenocide.ca/about/
[10] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftnref2
[11] http://www.srebrenica-project.com/DOWNLOAD/post mortem/Forensic analysis of post-mortem reports.doc
[12] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftnref3
[13] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftnref4
[14] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftnref5
[15] http://www.instituteforgenocide.ca/6481-srebrenica-genocide-victims-identified-through-dna-science
[16] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftnref6
[17] http://www.balkanstudies.org/node/add/article?destination=articles#_ftnref7
[18] http://www.rnw.nl/english/bulletin/over-6400-dead-srebrenica-muslims-identified